Forecasting Australian Property: House Costs for 2024 and 2025

A current report by Domain anticipates that property costs in numerous areas of the nation, particularly in Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane, and Sydney, are anticipated to see significant boosts in the upcoming financial

Across the combined capitals, home prices are tipped to increase by 4 to 7 percent, while unit costs are anticipated to grow by 3 to 5 percent.

By the end of the 2025 fiscal year, the average home cost will have surpassed $1.7 million in Sydney and $800,000 in Perth, according to the Domain Projection Report. Adelaide and Brisbane will be on the cusp of cracking the $1 million median home price, if they have not already strike seven figures.

The real estate market in the Gold Coast is expected to reach new highs, with costs projected to increase by 3 to 6 percent, while the Sunlight Coast is anticipated to see an increase of 2 to 5 percent. Dr. Nicola Powell, the primary economic expert at Domain, kept in mind that the expected development rates are relatively moderate in a lot of cities compared to previous strong upward trends. She discussed that rates are still increasing, albeit at a slower than in the previous monetary. The cities of Perth and Adelaide are exceptions to this trend, with Adelaide halted, and Perth showing no signs of decreasing.

Rental rates for houses are anticipated to increase in the next year, reaching all-time highs in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast.

According to Powell, there will be a general cost rise of 3 to 5 per cent in local units, showing a shift towards more affordable home options for buyers.
Melbourne's home market remains an outlier, with anticipated moderate yearly growth of as much as 2 percent for houses. This will leave the mean house cost at in between $1.03 million and $1.05 million, marking the slowest and most inconsistent recovery in the city's history.

The 2022-2023 downturn in Melbourne spanned 5 successive quarters, with the median home rate falling 6.3 per cent or $69,209. Even with the upper forecast of 2 percent development, Melbourne house costs will just be just under halfway into healing, Powell said.
Home rates in Canberra are anticipated to continue recovering, with a forecasted moderate growth ranging from 0 to 4 percent.

"According to Powell, the capital city continues to face difficulties in attaining a stable rebound and is expected to experience an extended and slow pace of progress."

The forecast of upcoming rate hikes spells bad news for potential property buyers struggling to scrape together a down payment.

"It indicates various things for various types of buyers," Powell said. "If you're an existing home owner, costs are anticipated to increase so there is that component that the longer you leave it, the more equity you might have. Whereas if you're a first-home buyer, it may suggest you need to save more."

Australia's housing market stays under substantial pressure as households continue to come to grips with cost and serviceability limitations amid the cost-of-living crisis, heightened by sustained high rate of interest.

The Australian reserve bank has actually kept its benchmark interest rate at a 10-year peak of 4.35% because the latter part of 2022.

According to the Domain report, the limited availability of new homes will stay the main aspect affecting home worths in the future. This is due to a prolonged shortage of buildable land, sluggish building license issuance, and raised structure costs, which have actually limited real estate supply for a prolonged duration.

A silver lining for prospective property buyers is that the approaching phase 3 tax decreases will put more cash in individuals's pockets, therefore increasing their ability to take out loans and ultimately, their purchasing power nationwide.

According to Powell, the housing market in Australia may receive an additional boost, although this might be counterbalanced by a decrease in the purchasing power of consumers, as the cost of living increases at a faster rate than salaries. Powell warned that if wage growth remains stagnant, it will lead to a continued struggle for affordability and a subsequent decrease in demand.

In regional Australia, house and unit prices are expected to grow moderately over the next 12 months, although the outlook varies between states.

"At the same time, a growing population propped up by strong migration continues to be the wind in the sail of property price development," Powell stated.

The revamp of the migration system may activate a decrease in local residential or commercial property demand, as the new competent visa pathway eliminates the need for migrants to live in local locations for two to three years upon arrival. As a result, an even bigger portion of migrants are most likely to converge on cities in pursuit of exceptional employment opportunities, subsequently decreasing demand in regional markets, according to Powell.

According to her, outlying regions adjacent to city centers would maintain their appeal for people who can no longer pay for to live in the city, and would likely experience a surge in appeal as a result.

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